Predicting GOES Electron Fluxes with Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) Model for Different Types of Geomagnetic Storms

The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model has proved to be an effective tool to understand dynamics of charged particles in the Earth's inner magnetosphere. The CIMI model can predict fluxes of radiation belt electrons, ring current particles, cold plasmaspheric population as a function of solar wind parameters, indices, equatorial radial distance, local time, energy and pitch-angle information (for radiation belts/ring current). For electrons, the CIMI model solves advection-diffusion equation combined with statistical models for chorus wave intensity and tabulated diffusion coefficients to predict radiation belt fluxes. An important part of the CIMI model is calculation of the electric field in the inner magnetosphere that is self-consistent with the ring current pressure distribution. For this study, we use the CIMI model to simulate GOES electron fluxes in the energy range 40-450 keV. Fluxes in this energy range are highly dynamic and their prediction is very important for complete space weather analysis. Additional motivation for understanding the dynamics of this energy range is demonstrated by recent findings that establish the population of electrons with energies of 100–200 keV in GEO orbit as a new class of previously neglected space weather hazards. We simulate CIMI electron fluxes for ~20 CIR-type geomagnetic storms and ~20 CME-type geomagnetic storms, and study both the model response and GOES fluxes as a function of the drivers (storm type, IMF Bz , Vx, dynamic pressure) and the local time sector. Finally, we evaluate the model's performance in terms of statistical metrics and propose ways to improve the model's predictions.