Modeling the Past and Future Activity of the Halleyids Meteor Showers
crossref（2020）
Abstract
We present a new numerical model of the Eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor shower. Through the modelling of millions meteoroids released from comet 1P/Halley, we simulate the characteristics of each Eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modelled showers activity duration, shape, maximum zenithal hourly rates (ZHR) values, and mass distributions are compared with several decades of meteor observations in the optical and radar range. Our simulations suggest that the age of the Eta-Aquariids shortly exceeds 5000 years, while the Orionids are composed of older material. Several Eta-Aquariid outbursts are expected in the future, in particular around 2023-2024 and 2045-2046. The evolution of 1P/Halley's meteoroid streams is strongly influenced by mean motion resonances with Jupiter, that might be responsible of a ~12 year cycle in the Orionids activity variations.
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